Hurricane Season: 30 Days Away – Here’s What We Know
We’re just 30 days from the official start of hurricane season, and early forecasts are already giving us a glimpse of what to expect.
A Busy Season Ahead?
Colorado State University’s initial outlook calls for an above-average season in the Atlantic. The forecast includes:
- 17 named storms
- 9 hurricanes
- 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)
El Niño vs. La Niña – Why It Matters
When meteorologists look at the upcoming hurricane season, we factor in large-scale climate patterns like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
El Niño: Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. This tends to increase wind shear over the Atlantic, which can suppress hurricane development.
La Niña: Cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures. This typically leads to lower wind shear, which can allow more storms to form and intensify.
Right now, we’re in a neutral phase—not El Niño, not La Niña. Forecast models suggest we’ll remain neutral through the summer.
What’s New This Season
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is making a few changes:
Forecast Cone: The cone will now be slightly narrower due to improved forecast accuracy and better modeling.
Rip Current Risk Map: A new national map will show rip current threats along the U.S. coastline during tropical activity, helping highlight a leading cause of storm-related deaths.
What’s Next?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will release its own seasonal forecast at the end of May.
Hurricane season officially begins June 1.
Stay tuned for the KRIS 6 Hurricane Special, airing soon!