CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — Remember that weak cold front we were waiting on last week? It hasn't gone far— it's sitting off our coast, across the Gulf. Also nearby, a broad area of upper-level low pressure (called a TUTT) has been meandering in the Bay of Campeche.
The National Hurricane Center will send a reconnaissance aircraft to investigate "Invest 92L" for development on Tuesday. NOAA Hurricane Hunters will fly "Gonzo", a Gulfstream IV aircraft into and around Invest 92L at 41,000 to 45,000 feet.
This low is known as a TUTT, which stands for tropical upper tropospheric trough. These types of low pressure can develop into tropical cyclones with the help of a weak or stagnant cold front. As the "upper tropospheric" part of the term suggests, this type of low pressure is most organized in the upper-levels of the atmosphere. This is precisely what the NOAA Hurricane Hunters flight on Tuesday will investigate. If they find anything interesting, other flights are already mapped out.
TUTTs tend to lack development in the low-levels. When a weakening cold front is in just the right proximity, it can help organize the lower-level of the atmosphere, supporting tropical development; if the front is strong, it can disrupt a TUTT.
The NHC has given a high probability of formation over the next week. In the latest tropical weather discussion on Monday night, NHC forecasters say a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week (this would get a number). If it develops further into a tropical storm, the next name on the list is Isaias. Either way, I expect minimal impacts along the Texas coast: increased swells, risk of rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please be careful if you plan to spend time on the beach!
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