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Busy Hurricane Season still in the forecast

NHC, CSU update their tropical outlooks
August 4th updated outlook
August 4th Tropical Atlantic
Posted at 7:37 PM, Aug 12, 2022
and last updated 2022-08-12 20:45:02-04

On Thursday, scientists from both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU) issued updated outlooks for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

While there isn't a big change from what was originally predicted by these experts, there are a few adjustments.

The CSU outlook lowers the number of named storms from 20 to 18 and the number of hurricanes from nine to eight. NOAA's update outlook, which is given in a range rather than a single quantity, calls for14-20 named storms (previously 14-21) and 3-5 major hurricanes (previously 3-6).

Despite a quiet start, both groups maintain that an above-average season is still expected.

Much of the reason the Atlantic Basin has been quiet is due to Saharan dust. If you've been keeping up with this blog, you know by now that we've had a good deal of Saharan dust moving across the Atlantic to the Coastal Bend, and it stifles out rain chances.

The same goes for just about anywhere Saharan dust looms over; the dust makes it difficult for raindrops to form and tends to make for a drier airmass. This is why there are hardly any clouds over the Atlantic Ocean.

But as the saying goes "all good things must come to an end" and soon, we will see less Saharan dust across the Atlantic Basin. This is typical for August.

We also tend to see tropical activity ramping up as we approach the peak of Hurricane Season on September 10th.

In all, Thursday's updated outlooks serve to provide statistics for the season. Don't become complacent just because it's been a quiet season so far.

My favorite example for this lesson is Hurricane Andrew (1992), a major category 5 monster that tore through Homestead, Florida. The entire Miami metropolitan area was impacted by this storm— the first of the season!

Remember to stay prepared all season long!

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