CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — Upper-level high pressure so prominent earlier this summer has now shifted into northwestern Mexico, but still ridges across Texas to bring fair, hot and dry conditions. Rain chances return to the region by late week. The atmosphere has dried out enough so that heat index values are not a thing through Wednesday; at least not enough for Heat Advisories.
Expect air temperatures in the middle 90s and peak heat indices of between 104 and 108 degrees through Wednesday. Then, a series of upper-level disturbances will glide out of the Intermountain West and through the Rockies, bringing enough instability to induce isolated showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday.
A strong disturbance will mean scattered thunderstorms for the weekend, ending early Monday morning. The cloudiness and precipitation will keep daytime temperatures in the middle 90s toward the end of the week, and through the weekend, while overnights will remain in the middle 70s. Rainfall totals will be a half to three-fourths of an inch, and a breezy southeasterly flow will maintain enough Gulf moisture to fuel the showers and storms.
In the tropics, Category 3 Hurricane Lee continues its slow northwesterly trek across the Atlantic, well east of the Bahamas. The system likely will re-intensify to Category 4 by Tuesday before making a turn north, then weakening as it moves just west of Bermuda. Its ultimate landfall is mostly likely Nova Scotia. Tropical Storm Margot remains inconsequential in the far eastern Atlantic. An area of disturbed weather just now moving off the African coast near Cabo Verde has a medium chance of development as it moves westward through the tropical Atlantic over the next week. This system will be monitored for its potential impact to the Leeward Islands. The Eastern Pacific is quiet.