CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — Upper level high pressure that has dominated the Southern U.S. for weeks will shift into the Great Basin on Monday, allowing a cold front to move into the Coastal Bend. The front will stall overhead, focusing copious moisture while combining with a tropical disturbance to bring significant rainfall through the week. While computer models disagree as to how much rain we can expect, the most conservative estimate is between 1 and 2 inches along the coast, and under an inch inland. Other models predict much heavier rainfall. Meanwhile, increased cloud cover and the anticipated rainfall will hold maximum temperatures to the lower 90s beginning Tuesday. Overnight readings will linger in the lower to middle 70s, warming to the upper 70s by the end of the week. Wind will not be a significant factor.
A tropical disturbance in the tropical Atlantic 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to moves west northwest at 15 to 20 mph. The structure of the system is improving, and the National Hurricane Center now estimates a 30 percent chance of tropical cyclone development within 48 hours. They estimate a 70 percent chance of a tropical depression or tropical storm to form within the next five days. Its anticipated path will carry in into the south central Caribbean Sea by midweek. Of course, we will keep you informed.