CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — We have the latest information on Elsa.
July 6, 7 a.m. update: The center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 82.6 West. Elsa is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north by tonight. A north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday.
On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to pass near the Florida Keys this morning, and move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later today through tonight. On Wednesday morning, Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States through Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast through tonight, and Elsa could be near hurricane strength before it makes landfall in Florida.
Weakening is expected after Elsa moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. A C-MAN station at Sand Key, Florida, recently measured a wind gust of 52 mph (83 km/h). The Key West International Airport also recently measured a wind gust of 48 mph (77 km/h).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND
Tropical storm conditions should continue over portions of central and western Cuba during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are beginning in the warning area in the Florida Keys and are expected along the Florida west coast later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west-central Florida and the Florida Big Bend region tonight and early Wednesday, where hurricane conditions are possible. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning late tonight and in Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday night and early Thursday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore winds within the Tropical Storm Warning areas. The southern coast of Cuba...2 to 4 ft The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL
Across portions of Cuba through tonight, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts this week: Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Across coastal portions of North Carolina into Southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.
TORNADOES
A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight across the Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday. SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.
The 6WEATHER Team continues to track the progress of Elsa. We will begin to see increased rip currents for our Gulf-facing beaches for the remainder of the week and also increased swells. Boaters, mariners, fisherman, and beach-goers are urged to use extreme caution!
July 2, 7:30 a.m. update: From the 6WEATHER Center: #Elsa has been upgraded to hurricane status by the National Hurricane Center this morning. A sustained wind of 74MPH with a gust to 86 was reported at Barbados. Elsa becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2021 season.
Stay with KRIS6 News for all the latest developments as Elsa pushes into the Caribbean.
July 2, 6 a.m. update: the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 58.6 West.
Elsa is moving quickly toward the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands this morning, move across the eastern Caribbean Sea late today and tonight, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is forecast over the next 12 to 24 hours, followed by little change in strength.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND
Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas and possibly in the watch areas later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Saturday, with hurricane conditions possible in southern Haiti. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica Saturday night or early Sunday.
STORM SURGE
A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Hispaniola.
RAINFALL
Tropical Storm Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches today across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides.
Tropical Storm Elsa is still not a direct threat to us here in South Texas and the entire 6WEATHER Team will continue to monitor the storm's progress this weekend. We could see some increased swells along the Gulf-facing beaches by the middle of next week.
July 1, 10 a.m. update: the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 51.4 West, this is about 680 miles to the east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Over the last several hours, from the previous update, Elsa has strengthened a little more.
Elsa is moving toward the west near 28 mph. An even faster motion toward the west-northwest is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours.
On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By early Sunday Elsa is forecast to move near portions of eastern Cuba.
Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles, mainly to the north of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb.
Residents in the Florida area should continue to monitor the storm's progress heading into the weekend, however, Elsa is not a threat to us in South Texas. There is a large area of high pressure that is centered near Bermuda, known as the Bermuda High, and most tropical forecast models continue to drive Elsa around the periphery of the high and towards the southeastern half of the US. Given that the storm is still a few days out, the 6WEATHER Team will continue to monitor the progress of the storm as it approaches the Caribbean.
July 1, 6 a.m. update: Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 9.4 North, longitude 48.8 West, and formed early Thursday morning at the 4 AM tropical update from the National Hurricane Center.
Elsa is moving toward the west near 25 mph (41 km/h). An even faster motion to the west-northwest is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours.
On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward and the southern Leeward Islands within the warning areas on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas on Friday.
RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches on Friday across the Windward and the southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides.
On the current forecast track, Elsa is not a direct threat to South Texas or the western Gulf of Mexico.
June 30, 5 p.m. update: A disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean has become Potential Tropical Cyclone No. 5 this afternoon.
The National Hurricane Center has issued advisories for the Lesser Antilles, as the system is expected to become Tropical Storm Elsa early Thursday.
On the current forecast track, the system will trek into the Caribbean Sea over the weekend, and near the Gulf of Mexico next week.
PTC No. 5, as it is known to the National Hurricane Center, is about 3,500 miles away from Corpus Christi, and is not a threat to the Coastal Bend at this time. The KRIS 6 Weather Team will be keeping an eye on this storm as it develops.
The warm ocean waters and favorable upper-level winds will allow PTC No. 5 to become better organized heading into this weekend.
A strong ridge of high pressure (the Bermuda High) over the open Atlantic will keep the storm on its projected path through the Caribbean Sea, but it's too early to tell exactly where it will go as it nears the Gulf of Mexico later next week.