It’s been several weeks since we’ve had some good rain in the Coastal Bend and with that time we’ve managed to get into a 2.13 inch rainfall deficit as of this afternoon.
With high pressure in control of our weather pattern, the heat and sunshine have been in full force and knocked out any opportunity to get some rainfall in the buckets.
That will change later on this week as the high pressure ridge starts to move east and allow moisture from a tropical wave, that is currently sitting in the Bay of Campeche, to move into our neck of the woods and bring some tropical rainfall.
Tonight will be warm and muggy with a low in the upper 70s. Expect breezy conditions, sunshine and only a stray shower on Monday with a high of 93. Wind: ESE 15-20 MPH
The tropical wave in the Bay of Campeche has had a tough time getting better organized over the last 24-48 hours given its close proximity to land. High wind shear just north of the system is also a limiting factor. Nonetheless, the National Hurricane Center has a medium chance of formation over the next couple of days; it would be named Barry if it does reach tropical storm status. Movement has been very slow to the west at 1 MPH at times. Forecasts take this into Mexico near Tampico and the quicker this happens, the less likely further formation will be.
The associated moisture will ride north, with the clockwise flow around the high in the central Gulf, and into our region beginning late Tuesday into Wednesday and tapering off by Thursday afternoon. Rainfall amounts will average around half an inch to an inch and a half by Thursday. This will keep highs in the upper 80s Wednesday afternoon with the extra clouds and rain in the area. The larger rainfall amounts will be in East Texas where 1.5-3 inches will be likely as the moisture moves into those parts of the state on Thursday and Friday.
Otherwise, as the moisture leaves the area the heat and sunshine will come back into our forecast and highs will shoot into the low to mid 90s and heat index values will climb back around 110-115.
Summary:
Tonight: A few clouds, steamy and warm…Low: 77 Winds: SE 6-12 MPH
Monday: Partly cloudy, breezy & hot – stray seabreeze shower…High: 93 Winds: ESE 15-20 MPH
Tuesday: Increasing tropical showers, mainly cloudy and still hot…High: 91 Winds: ESE 15-25 MPH
Wednesday: Cloudy with tropical downpours, some heavy…High: 87 Winds: SSE 15-20 MPH
Thursday: Rain exiting, steamy and hot…High: 91 Winds: SSE 7-14 MPH
Friday: Breezy, hot and humid …High: 94 Winds: SE 10-20 MPH
Saturday: Breezy, hot and humid…High: 95 Winds: SE 15-20 MPH
